Aeronautics Student Publications
Comparison of FAA Forecasted and Actual Annual Enplanements at U.S. Airports in 2007, 2011, and 2023
Document Type
Poster
Publication Title
Northrop Grumman Engineering & Science Student Design Showcase
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of passenger demand is essential for effective airport planning, infrastructure, and policy decision-making particularly from a risk management perspective (Mandel, 2014). However, making long-term forecasts is extremely difficult with many different factors at play leading airport planners to make misinformed investments. This study used publicly available data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecast and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) actual annual enplanements to examine the difference between forecasted and actual observed annual enplanements at 30 large hub airports in the United States to improve passenger demand forecasts. The result showed a statistically significant difference but small effect size between the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecast and actual annual enplanements with a p-value of p < .001 on paired samples t-test. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) annual forecasted enplanements were higher on average than actual enplanements. The results highlight both the accuracy and limitations of long-term demand forecasts and provide insight for improving their accuracy.
Publication Date
Spring 4-24-2026
Recommended Citation
Kattner, Jordan Alexander; Nithiyanandan, Ninthushan; Son, Yunjae; Sharma, Vivek; and Wheeler, Brooke, "Comparison of FAA Forecasted and Actual Annual Enplanements at U.S. Airports in 2007, 2011, and 2023" (2026). Aeronautics Student Publications. 37.
https://repository.fit.edu/aero_student/37
Comments
This study determines FAA forecast accuracy and finds statistically significant differences with small effect sizes, suggesting careful use in aviation planning.