Document Type

Report

Publication Title

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in the MENA Region (ACCWaM)

Abstract

MENA is the most water scarce region in the world, with 16 countries experiencing water scarcity (< 1000 m3 per capita per year) and 12 experiencing absolute water scarcity (< 500 m3 per capita per year). With rapidly growing and urbanising populations, water scarcity is increasing across the region on an annual basis.  This situation is already and will be further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, with consensus opinion indicating mean temperature increases of 4C and mean precipitation reductions reaching -30% across the region by 2100. In addition to changes in means, daily, seasonal, and interannual variability in precipitation is also projected to increase.  The physical impacts of climate change are likely to include decreased river flows, increased water scarcity in rainfed areas, decreased recharge of groundwater, increased evapotranspiration, coastal change due to inundation and saltwater intrusion, increased frequency of heat-waves, and the possibility of increased flooding.  In Egypt key vulnerabilities are related to future Nile flows, the impacts of sea level rise in the Delta coast, and tensions between plans for expanding agriculture and needs to reduce agricultural water consumption. In Jordan key vulnerabilities relate to reduced Jordan river flows, disproportionate water consumption in irrigated agriculture, impacts on rainfed agriculture, and limited opportunity for water savings efficiencies. The least water scarce country surveyed, Lebanon has vulnerabilities related to the human geography, infrastructural, and institutional legacies of the civil war, with poor water networks, dysfunctional governance systems, and an absence of data. Developing climate projections and assessing physical impacts in MENA is hampered by deficits in long-term data series, the complex interactions between climate, geography and hydrogeology, and the sensitivity of precipitation changes in arid areas. There is a lack of capacity for and rigorous studies of climate vulnerability assessments across the region, particularly in terms of social vulnerability, gender and the impacts of climate change on human health. There is a lack of evidence and experience on adaptation to climate change in the region. There are also capacity gaps on community based adaptation, and adaptation planning, policy, and economics. There are growing national activities in planned adaptation by international donors and state organisations, climate research by academic and government institutions, and climate activism by NGOs. At the regional level activity is less well developed, although dominated by UNDP and the World Bank. Several networks exist on related issues that could be exploited for mainstreaming adaptation in the water sector. There are needs for individual, institutional and regional capacity building and knowledge provision which ACCWAM is well positioned to fulfil, although careful positioning is needed to avoid duplication of efforts. The development of National Communications, National Adaptation Strategies, and updating National Water Strategies appear to the key national policy processes for ACCWAM to engage in.

Publication Date

2012

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