Document Type

Report

Publication Title

Supporting Material, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA)

Abstract

Global-mean sea-level rise is one of the more certain impacts of human-induced global warming and it will drive local impacts and adaptation needs around the world’s coasts. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of sea-level rise scenarios (or plausible futures). This guidance document summarises key relevant material concerning sea-level rise scenario development for the 21st Century from previous Working Group I and Working Group II assessments of the IPCC. The document describes the mechanisms which contribute to sea-level change and a methodology for combining available data on these mechanisms to create suitable sea-level rise scenarios for impact and adaptation assessments. Each component of the sea-level rise scenario, including the global volume of the ocean, regional effects due to differential thermal expansion of the ocean and dynamic effects and vertical land movements due to various natural and anthropogenic causes, are reviewed and methods to estimate these changes are considered that are consistent with the IPCC SRES emission scenarios. Procedures for developing relevant scenarios are illustrated, including the minimum requirements, and example sea-level scenarios are also included In the period between publication of the fourth IPCC assessment (AR4) and before the publication of the fifth assessment (AR5) in 2013-2014, this Guidance Document considers the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning and long-term decision-making. This includes consideration of sea-level rise during the 21st Century, which may be of high consequence, though of low or unquantifiable probability, that exceeds the projections of the quantifiable portions of sea-level budget reported in the AR4. In the absence of assessed results for such changes, this is not quantified here, but merely discussed in the context of its possible application in sensitivity studies and long-term vulnerability assessments. The quantified scenarios that are presented remain consistent with the full range of uncertainties signalled in the AR4. It is planned for an update of this sea-level scenario guidance to be prepared following the release of the AR5.

Publication Date

2011

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