Date of Award
5-2025
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Mechanical and Civil Engineering
First Advisor
Hamidreza Najafi
Second Advisor
Troy V. Nguyen
Third Advisor
Pallav Ray
Abstract
As the largest energy end-use sector, and a major contributor to global emissions, buildings are considered pivotal components of any plans towards a more sustainable future. The increasing urgency of mitigating climate change impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions has accelerated the growth in interest for moving towards high-performance buildings and particularly the use of renewable energy technologies in this sector. This thesis investigates how evolving climate conditions and particularly rising temperatures and changes in surface-level solar irradiance due to atmospheric factors could influence the long-term performance of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems across diverse U.S. climate zones. First, historical typical meteorological yearly (TMY3) data and projected weather data (developed by Argonne National Laboratory) were analyzed to quantify projected changes in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), and Dry Bulb Temperature for mid-century (2045–2054) and late-century (2085–2094) periods. The System Advisor Model (SAM) was then employed to simulate a standard 10 kW PV system in 15 locations spanning multiple American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zones, revealing that anticipated decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature could reduce annual energy production, even with advanced tracking configurations.
Complementing the national-scale analysis, a detailed case study of a recently constructed high-performance small office building on the campus of Florida Institute of Technology (the Alumni Building) in Melbourne, Florida was conducted using EnergyPlus. Results show that under future climate scenarios, rising temperatures significantly increase cooling loads, while concurrent drops in PV output diminish the building’s net-zero energy margin. Although overall annual surpluses remain possible, higher peak demands in summer and emerging winter deficits underscore the need for climate-adaptive strategies. The findings highlight three critical requirements for sustaining net-zero goals: developing PV modules resilient to temperature-related efficiency losses, designing buildings that incorporate passive cooling and smart energy management, and integrating energy storage to address seasonal mismatches. Ultimately, this thesis underscores the necessity of embedding climate change considerations into renewable energy planning and net-zero energy building NZEB design to ensure a more sustainable and resilient future.
Recommended Citation
Alghamdi, Moataz Abdullah, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Photovoltaic Power Generation and Building Energy Performance" (2025). Theses and Dissertations. 1559.
https://repository.fit.edu/etd/1559
